PRIMARY 2018: Predictions Vs. Reality

| June 26, 2018

11:30pm: Be sure to tune into the Eye On Annapolis Daily News Brief tomorrow morning at 7am (or whenever you want because it’s a podcast and delivered on demand for free) for an election recap and all the news. Here’s the scorecard:  66 races predicted, 50 were spot on, 16 were spot off. So a 76%… as they said in college… Cs get degrees!

Where to find the DNB...

10:30pm:  OK, this is updated with the wins and losses. Disclaimer, they are subject to change, but based on returns so far…here is where they stand. Some are too close to call. County Council 6 (D), County Council 7(R), Senate 32 (R), and Sheriff (R).  Going to try and put together a podcast in a bit and will update as we know more!

About a week ago, we offered our predictions on who woudl win various races. They were not endorsements…just unscientific predictions based on polls, interviews with candidates, off-record conversations with candidates and other politicos, discussions with voters, and a lot of opinion based on the past, the tenor of the electorate and all that.  So now it is time to see how we did…. polls are closed and we will update throughout the night!

Our initial predictions were in BLACK BOLD.  The winners are in RED BOLD, because patriotism, you know! The races I felt were going to be exceptionally close and could go either way were Senate 30 (Elfreth and Holt), Delegate 30A (Axe, Busch, Cain, Reese), County Council 6 (MacMullan and Rodvien), Delegate 33 (McConkey, Malone, Saab, Walker).

FEDERAL RACES

Congress District 1

  • Dem: Allison Galbraith, Jesse Colvin*, Michael Pullen
  • Rep: Andy Harris*, Martin Elborn

Congress District 2

  • Dem: Dutch Ruppersberger*, Jake Pretot
  • Rep: Hubert Owens*, Mark Shell, Liz Matory, Mitchell Toland

Congress District 3

  • Dem: Adam DeMarco, John Rea, Eduardo Rosas, John Sarbanes*
  • Rep: Charles Anthony, Thomas “Pinkston” Harris*, Rob Seyfferth

Congress District 4

  • Dem: Anthony Brown*
  • Rep: George McDermott*

Congress District 5

  • Dem: Dennis Fritz, Steny Hoyer*
  • Rep: Johnny Rice*, William A. Devine III

US Senate

  • Dem: Ben Cardin*, Debbie “Rica” Wilson, Jerome “Jerry” Segal, Marcia H. Morgan, Chelsea Manning, Erik Jetmir, Lih Young, Richard “Rikki” Vaughn 
  • Rep: Albert Binyahmin Howard, Blaine Taylor, Chris Chaffee, Evan M. Cronhardt, John R. Graziani, Tony Campbell*, Bill Krehnbrink, Brian Charles Vaeth, Christina Grigorian, Gerald I Smith Jr, Nnabu Eze

STATE WIDE RACES

Governor / Lt. Governor

  • Dem: Alec Ross, James Hugh Jones II, Ralph Jaffee, Rushern L. Baker III*, Ben Jealous, Jim Shea, Krish O’Mara Vignarajah, Rich Madaleno, Valerie Ervin (withdrawn), Kevin Kamenetz (deceased).
  • Rep: Larry Hogan*

Comptroller

  • Dem: Peter Franchot*
  • Rep: Anjali Phukan*

Attorney General

  • Dem: Brian E. Frosh*
  • Rep: Craig Wolf*

LOCAL RACES

State Senator, District 30

  • Dem: Sarah Elfreth, Chrissy Holt* 
  • Rep: Ron George*

State Senator, District 31

  • Dem: Scott Harman*
  • Rep: Bryan Simonaire*

State Senator, District 32

  • Dem: Pamela Beidle*
  • Rep: John Grasso, Maureen Bryant*

State Senator, District 33

  • Dem: Eve Hurwitz*
  • Rep: Edward R. Reilly*

House of Delegates, District 30A (Selecting 2)

  • Dem: Alice Cain*, Mike Busch, Mary Reese, Aron Axe*
  • Rep: Darren Burns*, Bob O’Shea*, Chelsea Gill, Doug Rathell

House of Delegates, District 30B (Selecting 1)

  • Dem: Carmen Skarlupka, Susan Cochran, Mike Shay*
  • Rep: Seth Howard*, Tom Walters

House of Delegates, District 31A (Selecting 1)

  • Dem: Ned Carey*
  • Rep: Brooks Bennett*

House of Delegates, District 31B (Selecting 2)

  • Dem: Harry Freeman*, Karen Simpson*
  • Rep: Nic Kipke*, Brian Chisholm, John Leopold*, David Therrien

House of Delegates, District 32 (Selecting 3)

  • Dem: Derek Kent, Jenese Jones, Mike Rogers, Theodore Sophocleus (Deceased), J. Sandy Bartlett*, Mark Chang*, Patrick Armstrong*
  • Rep: Patty Ewing, Mark Bailey, Tim Walters

House of Delegates, District 33 (Selecting 3)

  • Dem: Heather Bagnall*, Pam Luby*, Tracie Hovermale*
  • Rep: Connor McCoy, Jerry Walker*, Mike Malone, Tony McConkey*, Sid Saab*, Stacie MacDonald, Tom Angelis

LOCAL RACES

Circuit Court, District 5 for Anne Arundel County (Selecting 1, same names on both ballots)

  • Dem: Claudia Barber*, Rickey Nelson Jones, Annette DeCesaris, Nevin Young, Mark Crooks, Robert Burton, Kathleen Elmore
  • Rep: Claudia Barber, Rickey Nelson Jones, Annette DeCesaris, Nevin Young, Mark Crooks*, Robert Burton, Kathleen Elmore

County Executive

County Council District 1

  • Dem: Pete Smith*, Sarah Lacey
  • Rep: Kimberly Burns*

County Council District 2

  • Dem: Allison Pickard*, Candy Fontz
  • Rep: Tom Gardner*

County Council District 3

Dem:  Debbie Ritchie *

Rep: Nathan Volke*, Dana Smallwood

County Council District 4

  • Dem: Andrew Pruski*
  • Rep: Torrey Snow*

County Council District 5

  • Dem: Dawn Myers*
  • Rep: Michael Peroutka*, Amanda Fiedler

County Council District 6

  • Dem: Scott MacMullan*, Lisa Rodvien
  • Rep: Michael Christman*

County Council District 7

  • Dem: James Kitchin*
  • Rep: Jessica Haire, Jonathan Boniface*

Anne Arundel County State’s Attorney

  • Dem: Anne Colt Leitess*
  • Rep: Wes Adams*, Kathy Rogers

Anne Arundel County Sheriff

  • Dem: James Williams*
  • Rep: Ron Bateman, Jim Fredericks*, Beth Smith, Damon Ostis

Anne Arundel County Clerk of the Circuit Court

  • Dem: Scott Poyer*
  • Rep: Doug Arnold*, Bonnie Shepke

Register of Wills for Anne Arundel County

  • Dem: Joseph Janosky*
  • Rep: Lauren Parker*

Judge of the Orphan’s Court for Anne Arundel County (Selecting 3)

  • Dem:  Vickie Gipson*, Torrey Jacobsen*
  • Rep: Maureen Carr-York*, Carl Holland*, Nancy Phelps*, Alan Rzepkowski*

Up this year are Districts 1, 4, 5 and 7 in the school board. They are all  non-partisan and unaffiliated or third party candidates can vote in the primary for these candidates.

  • District 1: Candace Antwine, David Starr, Sidney Butcher
  • District 4: Donna Rober, Julie Hummer, Melissa Ellis
  • District 5: Dana Schallheim, Terry Gilleland, Uju Elliffe, Vincent Goldsmith
  • District 7: Laticia Hicks, Michelle Corkadel, Ray Leone

To be honest, I am not even sure how they determine who moves onto the general election (or if they do). But I will find out. And I will do some research and I will get back to you!

Rams Head

Category: OPINION, Post To FB

About the Author - John Frenaye

John is the publisher and editor of Eye On Annapolis. As a resident and business owner in Anne Arundel County for more than 15 years, he realized that there was something missing in terms of community news–and Eye On Annapolis was born in late spring 2009.

John’s background is in the travel industry as a business owner, industry speaker, and travel writer. In terms of blogging and social media, he cut his teeth with MSNBC.com.

Connect with the Author

Author's Website Facebook Twitter rss feed