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OK, so here is our “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment. But I think we have a leg up on the Chicago Times thanks to the technological advances and available data today.
For those following the District 6 County Council Race, you know it is a nail biter and it looks to be a nail biter for a few more days. However, we obtained some numbers and did some crunching of our own and can say with some relative confidence that Ferrar will indeed reduce the current 50 point spread, but will fall short of winning the election.
Here is how the numbers stack up for each candidate:
- Votes Cast On Election Day By Machine: 2665
- Votes Cast By Machine During Early Voting: 478
- Votes Cast By Absentee Ballot: 73
- Votes Cast On Election Day Provisionally: 38
- Votes Cast On Election Day By Machine: 2667
- Votes Cast By Machine During Early Voting: 411
- Votes Cast By Absentee Ballot: 88
- Votes Cast On Election Day Provisionally: 42
We were able to obtain the number of provisional votes cast per precinct on Election Day. When we looked to the 2006 race for a bit of history, we discovered that 18% of the provisional votes cast were disqualified for one reason or another. Utilizing that assumption for this election, we have projected the estimated number of provisional votes for each candidate.
The bottom line is that we are projecting Trumbauer to edge out Ferrar by a mere 39 votes. The absentee ballots were already counted, but there may be a few more to come in after the count and it is possible that Ferrar may pick up a few more votes narrowing the margin even more, but it is unlikely that there will be enough to impact the final result.
If you are interested in the data behind these projections, you can click here for our spreadsheet. [PDF]
Of course, no matter who comes out on top, the real fight begins on Thursday when the Republican candidate, Doug Burkhardt, comes into play. Burkhardt, in an uncontested primary, was able to realize 3631 votes–1000 more than either of his potential Democrat opponents. If the Democrats are split in their support of the successful Democrat candidate, Burkhardt could coast into office in November. Remember, this time around, there is not a well liked, well known, popular, hometown boy candidate like Josh Cohen. Ferrar, Burkhardt, and Trumbauer are political novices and none have yet to win an election.